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Posted by / 12-Jun-2019 04:58

Transfer Payments (TP), which includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government & private pensions and miscellaneous welfare programs) rose 0.7%.

If we subtract the latter from the former (PI less TP) the monthly increase drops to 0.2%.

Data for Q2 supported the consensus view that severe winter weather was responsible for the Q1 contraction -- that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline.

However, the average of these indicators in recent months suggests that, despite the Q2 rebound in GDP, the economy remains near stall speed.

That is the earliest date for which all four indicators are available.

Background Analysis: The Big Four Indicators and Recessions The charts above don't show us the individual behavior of the Big Four leading up to the 2007 recession.

While we've yet to set new highs, the trend has collectively been upward, although we have that strange anomaly caused by the late 2012 tax-planning strategy that impacted the Personal Income. Click for a larger image Industrial Production The US Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is the oldest of the four indicators, stretching back to 1919, although I've dropped the earlier decades and started in 1950.

Click for a larger image Click for a larger image Click for a larger image Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments This data series is computed as by taking Personal Income (PI) less Personal Current Transfer Receipts (PCTR) and deflated using the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI).

The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009.

We now have the three indicator updates for the 61th month following the recession. Current Assessment and Outlook The overall picture of the US economy had been one of slow recovery from the Great Recession with a clearly documented contraction during the winter, as reflected in Q1 GDP.

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I've included recessions to help illustrate the impact of the business cycle on this metric.

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